How it works
The calculator runs a two-proportion z-test, the standard test for comparing two conversion rates. It pools both ads to estimate the expected variation, then measures how far apart the two rates are in those terms. Confidence is reported two-sided, so it doesn't assume in advance which ad should win.
Worked example
Two Meta ads each get 20,000 impressions. Ad A gets 300 clicks (1.5% CTR), ad B gets 360 (1.8%). That is a 20% lift and the calculator reports about 98% confidence, so B is a real winner. The same 20% lift at 2,000 impressions each (30 clicks against 36) comes out at roughly 55% confidence, which is a coin toss. Most "winning" ads declared after two days are the second case.
Before you trust a result
Check the two ads ran to the same audience at the same time with similar budgets. A test where Meta gave one ad 80% of the spend is not a fair comparison, whatever the calculator says.